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National Assembly Futures Institute

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Congressional think tank designing
national future strategies

Future Research

[International Strategic Foresight] Mid- to Long-term Future Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: Unified Governance on the Korean Peninsula (No. 13)

The mid- to long-term future of peace and shared prosperity on the Korean Peninsula fundamentally depends on the question of whether it is possible to establish a new unit for a unified Korean Peninsula that transcends the multilayered rifts and division between the two Koreas. The report defined “collective governance,” which facilitates sustainable peacebuilding on a unified Korean Peninsula, as a concept that embraces the realization of collective institutionalization, as well as the civil society as a “community of people.” The report proposed a differentiated methodology for integration that emerged from the long-term and gradual integration process of the European Union while presenting the collective governance of the Korean Peninsula as a mid- to long-term future strategy.

2022.12.19

Future Research

[National Future Strategic Insight] Improvement Directions of University Education for Enhancing Innovative Capabilities of Talented People: Learning Support and the Development of Diagnostic Indicato

Changes in university education are required to strengthen innovation capabilities for the sustainable development of the nation economy through innovation in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Also, policy discussions and support for effective learning support are needed to enhance the innovative capabilities of university students who are in the stage of preparing for entry into the labor market. However, there are relatively less policy discussions on changes in teaching method in specific educational settings compared to discussions on changing the content and curriculum of university education. The study aims to explore directions and strategies for enhancing the effectiveness of learning support in relation to the changing direction of university education to strengthen the innovation capabilities of talented people. Thus, it presented the “diagnostic indicator for learning support to enhance innovative capabilities of university students” developed based on learning paradigms, learning types, and learning support strategies that should be emphasized in the new environment, as well as implications and ways of utilization.

2022.12.12

Future Research

[Futures Brief] The Rise of Emerging Citizens and the Social Landscape: Future Dialogues with Citizens from Six Regions (No.9)

In this study, emerging citizens who experience deepening social problems such as climate crisis, South-North conflict, unbalanced development, residential insecurity, family dissolution, technological disparity, and environmental destruction were discovered, and we engaged in future dialogues with them. Emerging citizens pointed out several social issues, including government policies that drive citizens away if they fail to quickly achieve their dreams, policies that invest in external appearances and neglect accumulation of cultural assets, ongoing conflict between economic growth and environmental preservation and the lack of solutions, a culture that discriminates against minorities and vulnerable groups when society feels insecure, the dissolution of families and communities along with the weakening of social care, and a government that destroys the future generations and the future environment, and stressed that the government should address these problems to ensure that more citizens do not experience feelings of insecurity and discouragement.

2022.12.05

Future Research

(National Assembly Collaborative)Recognizing and Responding to the Paradigm of International Order: A Focus on Debates in Major Countries

The international order is bound to change and the current global landscape is at an inflection point for change. This report begins by questioning how major countries perceive the changes in the international order, directing attention towards which countries are politically and economically hegemonic and whether liberalism or protectionism prevails as the dominant global order. In addition, it delves into whether the paradigm of the international order will change or whether it is a temporary and partial phenomenon that does not reach the level of paradigm shift. By examining the perspectives of key international actors, this analysis will provide valuable insights for strategizing our response to these global dynamics. This report begins by embracing the concept of a paradigm in relation to the international order, positioning itself as a "Research Report on the International Order Paradigm Discussions." It attempts to analyze the views of major leaders and governments as well as the viewpoints of academics separately. In particular, to grasp the perceptions of governments and major leaders, we referenced official sources such as foreign strategy documents, white papers, foreign ministry announcements, and statements by major leaders. Nonetheless, in instances where it proved challenging to differentiate between the stances of leaders and academics, our analysis mainly focused on the "international order paradigm perception and response" of the top leaders. The report is organized as follows: an introduction, discussion of the international order paradigm within various countries, characteristics and issues of the discussion, and a conclusion. In the section on countries' discussions on the international order paradigm, the main subjects of analysis are the United States, China, Europe, Japan, and North Korea. Should this report achieve its objective of encapsulating the perspectives of major nations on the international order and formulating suitable responses for Korea, it will prove to be an invaluable resource for legislators in their policy-making process. Our aspiration is for this report to act as a reference, delineating the stances of key countries on the evolving international landscape, marked by heightened U.S.-China tensions, yet punctuated by signs of cooperation between the two powers. * This study was conducted with National Assembly Research Service as the National Assembly Collaborative research.

2023.12.31

Future Research

(National Assembly Collaborative)U.S.-China Technology Innovation Competition and the Changing International Order

The history of past hegemonic shifts demonstrates that technological innovation plays a role in shifting global leadership and altering the international order. In some instances, the decline of a hegemon has been attributed to its complacency regarding existing technological advantages, while in others, aggressive investment in new technological innovations and industrialization has facilitated its ascent to hegemony. The United States, having led the world in technological innovation and industrialization during the second and third industrial revolutions, has maintained its hegemonic status for over a century, despite the recurrent emergence of "hegemonic crisis" discourse. Today, the rise of China and the integration of emerging technologies such as AI are once again prompting discussions about a potential hegemonic crisis and hegemonic shift. This study delves into and projects the U.S.-China hegemonic competition through the lens of technological innovation. Drawing on Lewis Mumford's analysis of technological civilizations, this study categorizes the current phase of technological civilization as one marked by the coexistence of new technologies (digital technologies) and new ecological civilization technologies (green technologies). Reflecting this classification, the world today advocates for the "Twin Transition" as a core national strategy, aiming to advance digital transformation and green transformation simultaneously. With China's rise and changes in the global order, U.S.-China competition is intensifying around green and digital technologies, which are fundamental to today's technological civilization and national innovation strategies. This study explores the trends and future of the U.S.-China rivalry in green and digital technologies, focusing on patent data. It assesses who is leading the innovation race in green and digital technologies based on the number of patent applications, and examines and forecasts the formation of blocs within the global network of these technologies through patent family analysis method. The history of hegemony illustrates that resting on the laurels of past scientific and technological advancements can precipitate decline. Amidst the history of technological innovation, hegemonic rise and fall, the Republic of Korea must reflect on the current challenges and crises it faces. There is an imperative for Korea to contemplate its future competitiveness in technological domains that have historically underpinned its growth. Moreover, it must consider the potential risks of losing its innovative edge and experiencing a decline in status if it becomes complacent with those very technologies that have previously driven prosperity, especially in an era of disruptive technological innovation. To achieve a position of unparalleled superiority across diverse sectors, Korea must commit to long-term and audacious investments in leading-edge technologies.

2023.12.31

Future Research

(National Assembly Collaborative Research Report) A Study on the Diagnosis of Problems in Renewable Energy Deployment Policies in the Power Sector and Institutional Improvement Measures

Countries around the world are adopting renewable energy as a key means of limiting climate change and achieving carbon neutrality. Major nations are prioritizing the expansion of renewable energy to decarbonize the power sector, leading to a rapid increase in the deployment of renewable energy. Additionally, renewable energy is emerging as a means of addressing global energy crises, achieving energy security, and pre-empting new industries, thus enhancing the importance of renewable energy policies. In the Republic of Korea, there have been continuous efforts to expand renewable energy since the implementation of the energy transition policy in 2017, with the share of renewable energy in power generation increasing to 7.15% by 2021. However, despite the lower-than-average global level of renewable energy electricity generation, various problems have arisen, and limitations in the RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard)-centered deployment system have been identified. In response, the National Assembly Futures Institute aims to compare domestic and international renewable energy trends and policy tools, diagnose problems in the domestic power sector's renewable energy deployment policy, and propose improvements for the activation of renewable energy. This involves examining international trends in renewable energy policy and institutional frameworks, as well as trends in the introduction of renewable energy deployment policy tools in the power sector. The domestic status of renewable energy deployment and power sector deployment policies and institutional frameworks were also reviewed. Following this, expert focus group interviews (FGI) were conducted to diagnose problems in domestic renewable energy policies and derive directions for improvement. Based on this, a survey was conducted among renewable energy industry stakeholders to understand their perceptions of renewable energy policies and investigate policy demands, seeking institutional improvement measures for the activation of domestic renewable energy. The following institutional measures were proposed based on these findings: ① Renewable Energy Deployment System Improvement: Transitioning the RPS system to an auction-based system and discussing detailed policy and legislative measures for this. ② Grid System Stabilization Measures: Establishing institutional and technical measures for timely construction of transmission and distribution networks, opening real-time and reserve markets, and introducing renewable energy bidding systems, with the need to expand Demand Response (DR) resources. ③ Consistency in Renewable Energy Policy: Introducing mandatory stakeholder public discourse and opinion gathering in energy policy formulation, institutionalizing a bipartisan energy agreement, and proposing measures to strengthen the National Assembly's review authority in energy policy formulation and goal setting.

2023.12.31

Future Research

2019 Annual Report

2020.05.29

Future Research

2020 Annual Report

2022.07.31

Future Research

2021 Annual Report

2022.07.31

News Release

The Successful Openings of the NAFI International Strategy Research Center, and Grand Strategy for Diplomacy Seminar

The Successful Openings of the NAFI International Strategy Research Center, and Grand Strategy for Diplomacy Seminar - Theoretical discussions on liberal international order, value diplomacy, and national interest diplomacy, and their application in Korea - NAFI (President Hyeon Kon Kim) International Strategy Research Center opened the “Grand Strategy for Diplomacy: Value, Practicality, and National Interest” seminar on Dec, 15 at 10 AM in the 2nd Meeting Room, Members’ Office Building. Nationally renowned international political scientists were invited to share their in-depth knowledge and thoughts on “Theoretical discussions of liberal international order, value diplomacy and national interest diplomacy, and their applications in Korea” President Hyeon Kon Kim of NAFI emphasized that “This seminar should help to organize disputatious diplomatic discussions conceptually and theoretically and raise our diplomatic discussions to the next level both in maturity and in quality” during his opening ceremony. Secretary General Kwang Jae Lee of the National Assembly highlighted the importance of diplomacy for national interest and emphasized that diplomacy leads to finding solutions for the 4th Industrial Revolution, and the Digital, Climate Change, and 100-year eras, and to pioneer the fate of Korea. Afterward, during the seminar where Professor Sang Bae Kim of Seoul National University was the moderator, Professor Jae Sung Jeon stressed that a “new framework must be established that goes beyond the competition between value diplomacy and national interest diplomacy” in the era of “the crisis of the liberal international order, and the rise of the multi-order world” during his presentation. He added on saying that the relationship between value-based diplomacy and national interest diplomacy varies based on a nation’s power. Between the powerful nations that put value-based above national interest-based diplomacy, and small nations that set national interest above value-based diplomacy, if Korea can achieve the status of an advanced country, going beyond a mid-size country, and attains the perception and experiences that national interests can be enhanced through global value diplomacy, then Korea can eventually overcome the confrontation between national interest and values diplomacy. Furthermore, he said it is important for Korea to suggest a future-oriented evolved liberal order. Afterward, during the panel discussion, Professor Won Kon Park of Ewha Womans University underscored that rule-based international order is key to the application of value diplomacy in Korea and added that further more expansive discussions should be held. Professor Seung Ju Lee of Chung-Ang University pointed out that both values and national interests are turbulent during this era of super uncertainty. He said a flexible and balanced strategy that includes a diversity of national interests is needed as more sectors with unestablished rules are expanding such as cyberspace. Professor Yong Wook Lee of Korea University mentioned even from the theoretical perspective of constructivism, the distinction between value diplomacy and practical diplomacy is logically unestablished, and since the perspective of national interest is already based on collectivism, it cannot be divided dichotomously. Professor Byung Won Woo of Yonsei University highlighted that the crisis of liberal international order typically stems from liberalism-centric countries, and for medium-sized countries like Korea, value-based diplomacy and national interest-centered practical diplomacy can coexist, and the need for value diplomacy and contribution diplomacy that satisfy the global status is on the rise. Professor Sung Cheol Jung of Myongji University also was against dividing diplomacy into value and national interests and suggested a “status seeker” country where the concept of national interest goes beyond survival and interests into status. He also pointed out that Korea’s goal to become a pivotal state requires further discussions on what type of mid-range country Korea should become. Professor Tae Seo Cha of Sungkyunkwan University mentioned the inevitability of the appearance of a multi-polar, multi-ideological world, and emphasized that with the existing Western-led liberal order, the stability of the 21st-century world cannot be sustained. He also suggested a realistic approach of opening the room for compromise for countries because intransigence expands when diplomacy puts too much emphasis on ideological factors. This seminar, hosted by the NAFI International Strategy Research Center, was broadcasted live on the NAFI YouTube channel, and the documents are uploaded on the NAFI webpage.

2023.12.15

News Release

The National Assembly Futures Institute successfully hosted the 1st National Assembly Youth Future Forum under the ...

The National Assembly Futures Institute successfully hosted the 1st National Assembly Youth Future Forum under the theme of “Beyond the Conflicts of Korea-China-Japan Towards the Future.” - Members of the National Assembly, experts, and the younger generation came together to diagnose the causes of conflicts between Korea, China, and Japan and explore future-oriented approaches to building relationships. - On October 5th at 2:00 PM, the National Assembly Futures Institute, under the leadership of President Kim Hyeon Kon, successfully hosted the 1st National Assembly Youth Future Forum on the theme of “Beyond the Conflicts of Korea-China-Japan Towards the Future.” The forum took place in the 3rd Seminar Room of the National Assembly Members’ Office Building. President Kim Hyeong Kon stated in the opening remarks, “It is significant that the Youth Future Committee selected the topic and organized the event itself.” “I believe it is an important opportunity to discuss the topic of ‘Beyond the Conflicts of Korea-China-Japan Towards the Future’ at the national level, which is somewhat difficult for the younger generation,” he added. In his congratulatory speech, Lee Kwang-jae, Secretary-General of the National Assembly, emphasized, “Just as the European Coal and Steel Community heralded the birth of the EU in the past, I believe that a city alliance for the economic growth and prosperity of Northeast Asia is necessary through joint energy purchases among South Korea, China, and Japan.” He further highlighted “the need for cultural exchange, including the Northeast Asia integration channel, multilingual subtitles, language standardization, and railway connections.” Cho Junghun, a member of the National Assembly's Global Diplomacy and Security Forum, expressed, “Despite the significant potential in South Korea, China, and Japan in Northeast Asia, there are many difficulties.” He also expressed hope that “the forum would generate practical discussions on the conflicts and future of South Korea, China, and Japan, despite the growing negative sentiment among the younger generation towards foreigners.” At the event, Kim Sun-bin, a member of the Youth Future Committee of the National Assembly Futures Institute, delivered a presentation on the topic of “Perception of South Korea, China, and Japan Among the Youth Generation: Conflicts and Cooperation.” He pointed out that the discriminatory views and conflicts toward international students among the current youth generation are attributed to a lack of mutual understanding, negative generalizations about them, and a deficiency in opportunities for constructive dialogue and discussion. However, given that the younger generation tends to separate “friendliness” and “importance” in perception depending on the issue, he emphasized the need to utilize this as a strategic approach for the progressive future development of South Korea, China, and Japan. To achieve this, he proposed the following alternatives: (1) Establishment of a Youth Committee within the Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee of the National Assembly; (2) Expansion of the Committee’s parliamentary youth exchange program to include South Korea, China, and Japan; (3) Policy improvement through bipartisan diplomatic cooperation: Institutionalization of a South Korea-China-Japan Parliamentary Union; (4) Implementation of party-level control mechanisms to avoid political strifes in education and diplomacy; and (5) The necessity to avoid media coverage that leads to the interpretation of diplomatic issues as political strifes. In the disucssion moderated by Bek Bumhym, Deputy Secretary-General of the Trilateral Cooperation Secretariat, Lee Wook Yeon, Professor of the Department of Chinese Language and Literature at Sogang University, explained that the hatred between South Korea, China, and Japan is commonly rooted in insecure nationalism. He stressed the importance of providing answers to the younger generation on why South Korea should thrive and encouraging communication to discuss the challenges that young people are currently facing. Lee Yoon-sik, Director of the Diplomacy and Security Center at the Yeouido Institute, pointed out that there are many differences among South Korea, China, and Japan, including in population, religion, political systems, language, territory, and historical backgrounds. In other words, there are many practical difficulties and obstacles for them to cooperate. With the premise that it is not easy for the three countries to cooperate at the same time, he expressed that there is a need for tailored cooperation strategies. Lee Seung-won, Deputy Director of the Policy Institute of Justice Party, highlighted the importance of having various channels in Korea-China-Japan relations. he also emphasized that many young people from the three countries should be able to meet on various issues. Jung Mi-ae, Special Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute, explained that the most important thing for the development of a society is pluralism that values diversity. She emphasized that it is crucial not to generalize negative biases held by others. Although there are concerns over the growing dichotomy of in Korean society, she stressed that through forums like this, the younger generation should create ways to cooperate in various aspects. Lee Se-hun, a reporter for the Kangwon Domin Ilbo, mentioned that within the media ecosystem, there is a common voice emphasizing the need for relationship improvement through cooperation, rather than seeking dominance through conflict and competition, in the context of South Korea-China-Japan issues. He highlighted the role of the media as a place where the younger generation obtains information related to diplomacy and stressed the need for solution journalism, leveraging the specificity of reporting and the communication channel. Kim Min-seo, Vice President of the OVAL KOREA, an organization formed by Korean, Chinese, and Japanese university students, expressed the challenges faced in continuing exchanges amid diplomatic difficulties. She added that apart from political issues, there are also difficulties in communication due to the language differences. Kim called for interest and support in realizing neutral policies that allow exchanges between Korea, China, and Japan to continue without being constrained by political situations, emphasizing the lack of support from the National Assembly or the government. Shin Yoo-ri, a member of the Youth Future Committee at the National Assembly Futures Institute, stated that hate speech, bias, and hostility are increasing on online and social media platforms. To address this issue, she outlined the need for: (1) Establishing a digital exchange program in Northeast Asia; (2) Strengthening exchanges for youth in Northeast Asia; (3) Creating an independent youth assembly; (4) Multifaceted support from international organizations, regional entities, institutions, and political foundations; and (5) Securing a sustainable shared platform for resolving common challenges in Northeast Asia. The purpose of this forum is to focus on how the politicization of diplomatic issues by domestic political circles and the media has influenced actual diplomatic policies, to provide an opportunity for members of the National Assembly, experts from various fields, and representatives from the younger generation to come together to diagnose the causes of conflicts among South Korea, China, and Japan, and explore ways to build future-oriented relationships.

2023.10.05

News Release

The National Assembly Futures Institute hosted a global roundtable on “The Role of the National Assembly Leading ...

The National Assembly Futures Institute hosted a global roundtable on “The Role of the National Assembly Leading Green Transition.” - A venue for understanding the EU's green transition policy and technological developments, and discussions of future collaboration directions between South Korea and the EU. - The National Assembly Futures Institute (President: Kim Hyeon Kon) will host a global roundtable as part of its parliamentary diplomacy research under the theme of “The Role of the National Assembly Leading Green Transition: Focused on Science and Technology Cooperation between South Korea and the EU.” The event will take place on September 5th at 2:00 PM at the National Assembly Library's National Strategy Information Center. The purpose of this event is to share insights into the policy changes and technological cooperation needs of the EU, which is leading the green transition, and to discuss the direction of collaboration with the Korean legislature. The event will be conducted in English, with simultaneous English-Korean interpretation provided. President Kim Hyeon Kon will deliver the opening remarks, and congratulatory remarks will be given by Representative Lee Sangmin of the Democratic Party of Korea and Leader Kim Gihyeon of the People Power Party, Chairs of the Korea-EU Parliamentary Diplomacy Forum. The presentation will focus on “Green Transition Future Agendas and Technological Development.” Jorg Weberndorfer, Minister Counsellor of the Delegation of the EU to South Korea, will discuss the current status and future agendas of the EU’s green transition and green technological development policies. Kim Eun-ah, Head of the Innovation Growth Group at the National Assembly Futures Institute, will present on Korea's policy status and future agendas. The panel discussion, titled “The Role of Legislatures in Facilitating Green Transition through Korea-EU Technological Cooperation,” will feature presentations from individual embassy representatives of France (Jean-Claude Masy), Denmark (Jacob Navarro Rasmussen), and the Netherlands (Peter Wijlhuizen). They will share recent policy trends and technological cooperation needs for each country. Following this, Korean panelists (Han JeongHun, Professor at Seoul National University Graduate School of International Studies, and Cha Jungmi, Director of Center for International Strategies at the National Assembly Futures Institute) will discuss the role of legislatures. President Kim Hyeon Kon emphasized, “Through this event, we expect a diverse exchange of ideas regarding understanding of the EU’s green transition policies, technological development, and the future direction of Korea-EU cooperation.”

2023.08.31

News Release

The 7th National Consultation on “Local Extinction Crisis” was Successfuly Held

The 7th National Consultation on “Local Extinction Crisis” was Successfuly Held - Kim Jin Pyo, Speaker of the National Assembly, stated, “The local crisis is a national crisis, and the National Assembly and central and local governments should explore alternatives together."- - Presented five major strategies for the local era, including decentralization, education reform, innovative growth, specialized development, and social welfare. - - Members of the National Assembly, the Minister of the Interior and Safety, governors, scholars, journalists should work together to come up with alternatives.- On August 30, at 9:00 AM, the Republic of Korea’s National Assembly, under the leadership of Speaker Kim Jin Pyo, successfully held the 7th National Consultation at the 1st meeting room of the Member’s Office Building under the theme of “Discussing the Local Crisis and the Role of the National Assembly” In his opening remarks, Speaker Kim Jin Pyo stated, “The local crisis should be recognized as a national crisis, and the National Assembly, central government, and local governments should work together to find alternatives.” He also emphasized the need to “make efforts for graduates of local universities to find good jobs in local areas and overhaul policies to attract foreign students and support their settlement.” In his congratulatory remarks, Kim Kyoheung, Chairperson of the National Assembly’s Public Administration and Security Committee, said, “Low birth rates are a problem for the entire Republic of Korea, but population migration to the capital region has a fatal impact on local areas.” “Local areas should become places of hope where young people can achieve personal success,” he added. Lee Sang-min, Minister of the Interior and Safety, stated, “We need to move away from centralized policies and transition to a system where local governments take a leading role, with the central government supporting them.” He added, “I will strive to realize an era where every part of South Korea is a good place to live.” Woo Dong-gi, Chairperson of the Local Era Committee, delivered a keynote speech on the theme of “Vision and Strategy for the Local Era.” He emphasized five key strategies for the local era: (1) Substantial decentralization to enhance autonomy; (2) Audacious education reform to nurture talent; (3) Innovative growth to increase employment; (4) Specialized development led by regions; and (5) Tailored living welfare to improve the quality of life. Also, he proposed five key challenges for the local era: (1) Establishing a decentralized national governance system; (2) Promoting industrial activity and investment in local areas; (3) Innovating education and revitalizing local universities; (4) Relocating public institutions in the capital region to local areas; and (5) Promoting local innovation based on intelligence. During the discussion session moderated by Kim Young-mi, President of the Korean Association for Policy Studies and Professor at Sangmyung University, Lee Cheol-woo, President of the Governors Association of the Republic of Korea and Governor of Gyeongsangbuk-do, diagnosed that the local era cannot be realized within the framework of the central government. He added that to secure autonomy for local areas, the National Assembly has to minimize regulations through legislation, and to create a true local era, bureaucratic authoritarianism in the central government must be overcome. Kim Yeong-rok, Governor of Jeollanam-do, called for a bold and innovative transfer of authority from the central government to local governments, suggesting that the central government should only handle tasks that local governments cannot and transfer the rest to local governments. He proposed the relocation of large corporations and public institutions to local regions, the expansion of autonomy for local governments when establishing comprehensive plans for the local era, and the creation of a deputy prime minister-level position representing and executing the interests of local governments. Song Jaeho, Co-Chairperson of the National Assembly’s Balanced Regional Development Forum, emphasized the need to differentiate tasks that the central government, cities and provinces, and cities, counties, and districts should perform and redefine their roles. He called for the swift relocation of the National Assembly to Sejong City to address administrative inefficiency issues and recommended restructuring local administrative efficiency through the conversion of educational facilities, such as kindergartens and primary, middle, and high schools, in the regions. Park Woo-ryang, Chairperson of the Korea Local Governments Alliance for Sustainable Development and Governor of Sinan-gun, stressed the importance of minimizing regulations when enacting or amending related laws, suggesting that autonomy should be granted to cities and provinces, and cities, counties, and districts through ordinances. He also emphasized the need for an appropriate distribution of authority between cities and provinces and cities, counties, and districts. Ma Kang-rae, Professor at Chung-Ang University, suggested considering the social costs of imbalanced development. He emphasized the need for strategies such as urban strategies to address the concentration in the metropolitan area, a 'two-track' strategy for small and medium-sized cities and rural areas, and strategies to promote vitality in rural areas through the return of baby boomers to their hometowns. Huh Won-soon, a head editorial writer at the Korea Economic Daily, mentioned that the relocation of companies to local areas could be more effective in reducing individual income tax for employees than corporate tax reductions. To activate the local population, he proposed the idea of a “1.5 resident registration system” where people could live in other regions on weekends. The discussion was attended by Kim Young Joo, Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly, Kim Kyoheung, Chairperson of the National Assembly’s Public Administration and Security Committee, and National Assembly members Kwon Insook, Kim Hyungdong, Song Jaeho, Yang Jungsuk, Lee Manhee, and Lee Inseon. From the National Assembly agencies, participants included Lee Kwang-jae, Secretary-General of the National Assembly, Kwon Young-jin, Deputy Legislative Director of the National Assembly, Park Jangho, Deputy Secretary-General of the National Assembly, Lee Myung Woo, Chief Librarian of the National Assembly Library, Cho Euysup, Chief of National Assembly Budget Office, Park Sang-Chul, Chief of the National Assembly Research Service, and Kim Hyeon Kon, President of the National Assembly Futures Institute. The National Consultation, organized and hosted by the National Assembly Secretariat and National Assembly Futures Institute, was broadcast live on the National Assembly TV and its YouTube channel, and the consultation materials are available on the National Assembly Futures Institute website.

2023.08.30

News Release

The National Assembly Futures Institute held a discussion on future issues with a delegation from the Swedish ...

The National Assembly Futures Institute held a discussion on future issues with a delegation from the Swedish Parliament’s Industry and Trade Committee - Discussion on the future of the international order and the role of East Asia, including China. - On August 28th, the National Assembly Futures Institute, under the leadership of President Kim Hyeon Kon, held a discussion on future issues with the delegation from the Industry and Trade Committee of the Swedish Parliament at the National Assembly Library’s National Strategy Information Center. The discussion, initiated with greetings from President Kim Hyeon Kon and Tobias Andersson, Chairperson of the Industry and Trade Committee, proceeded with a presentation by Cha Jungmi, Director of Center for International Strategies at the National Assembly Futures Institute, followed by a question-and-answer session and discussions. Director Cha introduced the research results on “The Future of the World Order in 2050” and “The Future of Technological Competition between the United States and China.” During the discussion, members of the Industry and Trade Committee inquired about the preferred future for 2050 and South Korea’s de-risking strategy. The research team from the Futures Institute expressed interest in Sweden’s competition strategies on technological hegemony and the security policies of the European Union. Panelists agreed that East Asian variables, including China, would play a crucial role in shaping the future of the international order, including Europe. The delegation, consisting of 10 members, including Chairperson Tobias Andersson, visited South Korea to examine the country’s industrial situation. Following their first official schedule, visiting the National Assembly’s Trade, Industry, Energy, SMEs, and Startups Committee, the delegation had a discussion session with the National Assembly Futures Institute on major future issues. In addition to the delegation from the Swedish Parliament’s Industry and Trade Committee, Daniel Wolvén, the Swedish Ambassador to Korea, also attended the discussion. Following the discussion, the Swedish Parliament and the National Assembly Futures Institute agreed to continue mutual cooperation on future issues.

2023.08.28

Research Report

(National Assembly Collaborative)Recognizing and Responding to the Paradigm of International Order: A Focus on Debates in Major Countries

P.I : Cha Jung-mi

The international order is bound to change and the current global landscape is at an inflection point for change. This report begins by questioning how major countries perceive the changes in the international order, directing attention towards which countries are politically and economically hegemonic and whether liberalism or protectionism prevails as the dominant global order. In addition, it delves into whether the paradigm of the international order will change or whether it is a temporary and partial phenomenon that does not reach the level of paradigm shift. By examining the perspectives of key international actors, this analysis will provide valuable insights for strategizing our response to these global dynamics. This report begins by embracing the concept of a paradigm in relation to the international order, positioning itself as a "Research Report on the International Order Paradigm Discussions." It attempts to analyze the views of major leaders and governments as well as the viewpoints of academics separately. In particular, to grasp the perceptions of governments and major leaders, we referenced official sources such as foreign strategy documents, white papers, foreign ministry announcements, and statements by major leaders. Nonetheless, in instances where it proved challenging to differentiate between the stances of leaders and academics, our analysis mainly focused on the "international order paradigm perception and response" of the top leaders. The report is organized as follows: an introduction, discussion of the international order paradigm within various countries, characteristics and issues of the discussion, and a conclusion. In the section on countries' discussions on the international order paradigm, the main subjects of analysis are the United States, China, Europe, Japan, and North Korea. Should this report achieve its objective of encapsulating the perspectives of major nations on the international order and formulating suitable responses for Korea, it will prove to be an invaluable resource for legislators in their policy-making process. Our aspiration is for this report to act as a reference, delineating the stances of key countries on the evolving international landscape, marked by heightened U.S.-China tensions, yet punctuated by signs of cooperation between the two powers. * This study was conducted with National Assembly Research Service as the National Assembly Collaborative research.

(National Assembly Collaborative)U.S.-China Technology Innovation Competition and the Changing International Order

P.I : Cha Jung-mi

The history of past hegemonic shifts demonstrates that technological innovation plays a role in shifting global leadership and altering the international order. In some instances, the decline of a hegemon has been attributed to its complacency regarding existing technological advantages, while in others, aggressive investment in new technological innovations and industrialization has facilitated its ascent to hegemony. The United States, having led the world in technological innovation and industrialization during the second and third industrial revolutions, has maintained its hegemonic status for over a century, despite the recurrent emergence of "hegemonic crisis" discourse. Today, the rise of China and the integration of emerging technologies such as AI are once again prompting discussions about a potential hegemonic crisis and hegemonic shift. This study delves into and projects the U.S.-China hegemonic competition through the lens of technological innovation. Drawing on Lewis Mumford's analysis of technological civilizations, this study categorizes the current phase of technological civilization as one marked by the coexistence of new technologies (digital technologies) and new ecological civilization technologies (green technologies). Reflecting this classification, the world today advocates for the "Twin Transition" as a core national strategy, aiming to advance digital transformation and green transformation simultaneously. With China's rise and changes in the global order, U.S.-China competition is intensifying around green and digital technologies, which are fundamental to today's technological civilization and national innovation strategies. This study explores the trends and future of the U.S.-China rivalry in green and digital technologies, focusing on patent data. It assesses who is leading the innovation race in green and digital technologies based on the number of patent applications, and examines and forecasts the formation of blocs within the global network of these technologies through patent family analysis method. The history of hegemony illustrates that resting on the laurels of past scientific and technological advancements can precipitate decline. Amidst the history of technological innovation, hegemonic rise and fall, the Republic of Korea must reflect on the current challenges and crises it faces. There is an imperative for Korea to contemplate its future competitiveness in technological domains that have historically underpinned its growth. Moreover, it must consider the potential risks of losing its innovative edge and experiencing a decline in status if it becomes complacent with those very technologies that have previously driven prosperity, especially in an era of disruptive technological innovation. To achieve a position of unparalleled superiority across diverse sectors, Korea must commit to long-term and audacious investments in leading-edge technologies.

(National Assembly Collaborative Research Report) A Study on the Diagnosis of Problems in Renewable Energy Deployment Policies in the Power Sector and Institutional Improvement Measures

P.I : Jeong Hoon

Countries around the world are adopting renewable energy as a key means of limiting climate change and achieving carbon neutrality. Major nations are prioritizing the expansion of renewable energy to decarbonize the power sector, leading to a rapid increase in the deployment of renewable energy. Additionally, renewable energy is emerging as a means of addressing global energy crises, achieving energy security, and pre-empting new industries, thus enhancing the importance of renewable energy policies. In the Republic of Korea, there have been continuous efforts to expand renewable energy since the implementation of the energy transition policy in 2017, with the share of renewable energy in power generation increasing to 7.15% by 2021. However, despite the lower-than-average global level of renewable energy electricity generation, various problems have arisen, and limitations in the RPS(Renewable Portfolio Standard)-centered deployment system have been identified. In response, the National Assembly Futures Institute aims to compare domestic and international renewable energy trends and policy tools, diagnose problems in the domestic power sector's renewable energy deployment policy, and propose improvements for the activation of renewable energy. This involves examining international trends in renewable energy policy and institutional frameworks, as well as trends in the introduction of renewable energy deployment policy tools in the power sector. The domestic status of renewable energy deployment and power sector deployment policies and institutional frameworks were also reviewed. Following this, expert focus group interviews (FGI) were conducted to diagnose problems in domestic renewable energy policies and derive directions for improvement. Based on this, a survey was conducted among renewable energy industry stakeholders to understand their perceptions of renewable energy policies and investigate policy demands, seeking institutional improvement measures for the activation of domestic renewable energy. The following institutional measures were proposed based on these findings: ① Renewable Energy Deployment System Improvement: Transitioning the RPS system to an auction-based system and discussing detailed policy and legislative measures for this. ② Grid System Stabilization Measures: Establishing institutional and technical measures for timely construction of transmission and distribution networks, opening real-time and reserve markets, and introducing renewable energy bidding systems, with the need to expand Demand Response (DR) resources. ③ Consistency in Renewable Energy Policy: Introducing mandatory stakeholder public discourse and opinion gathering in energy policy formulation, institutionalizing a bipartisan energy agreement, and proposing measures to strengthen the National Assembly's review authority in energy policy formulation and goal setting.

(National Assembly Collaborative Research Report) Research on Stage-by-Stage Renewable Energy Conflict Issues and Conflict Resolution Strategies

P.I : Jeong Hoon

To mitigate climate change and achieve carbon neutrality, the world is expanding renewable energy, leading to a global surge in its adoption. Renewable energy is also emerging as a means of addressing energy crises, achieving energy security, and pre-empting new industries, and these roles are expected to continue expanding in the future. However, conflicts related to public acceptance, such as environmental and landscape impacts, are arising globally in the process of expanding renewable energy, acting as a major hindrance to its growth. In the Republic of Korea, conflicts related to public acceptance are also occurring in the process of installing renewable energy facilities, along with conflicts related to grid integration due to regional concentration and insufficient system capacity. Additionally, conflicts may spread in the utilization phase due to increased demand for renewable energy in the industrial sector, driven by global carbon trade barriers such as the spread of RE100 and the introduction of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Considering the importance of renewable energy in achieving national carbon neutrality goals and enhancing industrial competitiveness, it is necessary to prepare proactive response measures through systematic analysis and consideration of these conflicts. To this end, the National Assembly Futures Institute aims to comprehensively examine potential renewable energy conflict issues at each stage of deployment (power generation), transmission and distribution (grid integration), and utilization (consumption), and propose institutional measures for conflict response and management from a renewable energy activation perspective. Through text mining analysis and focus group interviews (FGI) with experts, conflict issues at each stage of renewable energy were identified, and the points of contention, causes of conflict, and stakeholders were analyzed. The roles of the National Assembly and government in mitigating and resolving conflicts were considered. A survey was conducted targeting major stakeholders in domestic renewable energy conflicts, such as renewable energy power generation companies and RE100 participating companies, to investigate experiences and perceptions of conflicts and demand for related policies. Additionally, by referencing cases of conflict status and management systems in major foreign countries like Germany, Denmark, France, and Japan, three institutional measures for responding to renewable energy conflicts were proposed: ① Establishing a professional conflict mediation body for systematic conflict management ② Improving the systematic nature of renewable energy policies ③ Introducing public discourse procedures in the energy policy-making process to prevent conflicts

(23-02 Working Paper) Research on Legislative and Policy Directions for Activating the Venture and Startup Ecosystem

P.I : Yeo Yeong-jun

Historically, South Korea experienced rapid economic growth through effective technological learning, assimilating advanced technologies and knowledge with remarkable efficiency. However, the legacy of a government-led, catch-up strategy has introduced a degree of institutional rigidity, hindering the transformation and diversification of technological learning capabilities into a more dynamic innovation system. This study highlights concerns that current policies may be insufficient in fostering a vibrant innovation ecosystem and generating positive spillovers through diversity expansion. As the Fourth Industrial Revolution and digital transformation accelerate, countries worldwide are engaging in comprehensive technological competition. Domestically, South Korea faces a growth stagnation trap, constrained by the limitations of its traditional growth model reliant on established corporations and industrial structures. Unquestionably, a structural overhaul towards securing future growth engines and fostering new industries is essential for South Korea's rise to global prominence. This necessitates a clear shift towards enhancing the venture and startup ecosystem. Emerging as a leading nation in ventures and startups is increasingly recognized as a condition for success, given the global economic rivalries today. The government institutions, along with the National Assembly, are keen on pooling wisdom to support this transition. As part of these efforts, our research delves into the critical issues faced by ventures and startups at various stages of growth within the transitioning Korean economy. We propose legislative and policy tasks aimed at creating a healthy and dynamic ecosystem for ventures and startups. To address these challenges, we systematically outline institutional limitations and policy issues inherent in Korea’s innovation and corporate support frameworks. Furthermore, we present government policy recommendations designed to address these challenges and support the transition towards an entrepreneurial economy. This study’s implications extend beyond specific industries or companies, advocating for a collective embrace of the entrepreneurial spirit and continuous evolutionary development among various stakeholders in Korea’s innovation system.

(23-01 Working Paper) The Political Process of Working Hours Legislation: Comparing Major Phases of Change

P.I : Jung Hae-yoon

This study aims to analyze how the issue of working hours has been addressed in Korean society by focusing on the phases of change in legislation concerning the matter. The discussion has been approached from the mid-/long-term perspective by identifying the major phases through which the working hours issue has been dealt with politically. The goal has been to move beyond simply judging the pros and cons of measures taken in a particular context by a particular government administration. We have divided the political process of working hours legislation into three main periods: (1) Formal Institutionalization (1953-1988), (2) Action and Reaction (1989-1997), and (3) Legal Institutionalization (1998-present). The process of legal transformation was characterized by (1) the nature of and agenda for reducing working hours (strengthening regulations) and making working hours more flexible (deregulation), (2) the venue (National Assembly parliament and other spaces) and main actors, and (3) whether it was an independent effort or part of some other agenda (collective labor relations law). Chapters 1 and 2 introduce the research questions, background, and three dimensions of the timeline of this study, namely (1) the status of working hours, (2) establishment of an agenda, and (3) legislative changes. They also explain the organization of the study. Chapter 3 analyzes the first period (1953-1988), when the form of labor hour legislation did not function effectively as a rule of law. Chapter 4 explores the period of action and reaction from 1989 to 1997. Major reforms were made for reducing working hours and making them more flexible during the legislative process. Chapter 5 deals with the institutionalization of the working hours laws and regulations from 1998 to the present. Chapter 6 summarizes the chapter’s analyses and reconstructs news questions for the political process of working hours legislation. The study presents the historical trends and political and social context in which the working hours issue has been addressed in Korean society over the mid-/long-term.

(23-02 Series Report) Future response policy: Medium to long-term strategy for Population change and government

P.I : Min Bo-gyeong

Previously unexperienced demographic changes, such as population decline and rapid aging, are presenting new challenges for South Korea. Are we adequately prepared for the future amid these rapid changes? Is the government effectively addressing these issues from a medium to long-term perspective? This study aims to examine the government's medium to long-term strategy related to population changes and derive insights by investigating policies related to elderly health, defense personnel, immigration, and regional policies for population decline. In examining the policies for an aging society and elderly health, the study finds that national-level medium to long-term plans provide fundamental policy directions for establishing a healthy and humane aging society and can be linked to indicators for future society response. Looking into population decline and defense personnel policies, the study observes that the basic defense reform plan can be influenced by changes in administration and the target of maintaining a standby military force size of 500,000 in the mid-term defense plan is practically challenging to achieve. Regarding population decline and immigration policies, a significant portion of the budget is being used for multicultural family support, while policy considerations for foreign laborers and other related aspects have been inadequate. An examination of regional policies for population decline reveals that they primarily focus on economic aspects in responding to population decline, highlighting the need for a more multifaceted strategy. While it is possible to link the government's medium to long-term strategies through a framework of indicators for future society response, it is also necessary to establish a more detailed and multi-dimensional framework for evaluating government policies. From the perspective of long-term future readiness, it is essential to strengthen the government's planning and systematic approach in allocating budgets related to population changes, such as population decline and aging. Furthermore, establishing a mechanism for monitoring the national medium to long-term strategy at the legislative level is required.

(23-12 Research Report) Political Polarization in Korea: Evaluation and Suggestions for Improvement

P.I : Park Hyeon-seok

Polarization stands out as a major contributor to political gridlock in Korea. This study analyzes the current state of political polarization in Korea and proposes solutions to mitigate its adverse effects.To this end, surveys and a survey experiment involving the general electorate were conducted, while legislative staff in the National Assembly were polled. The survey of the general electorate revealed some evidence of political polarization among voters, but the level appears to be moderate. Meanwhile, the survey experiment was aimed at gauging voters' affinity toward political candidates from the two major parties while controlling for the degree of policy polarization and the provision of party information. The results indicate that the policy polarization of politicians and the availability of party information do not significantly impact voters' affinity for specific candidates. No evidence was found that party polarization is mobilizing affective polarization among the general electorate. However, nearly half of the legislative staff members surveyed believe that party polarization reflects the polarization of the electorate. These seemingly contradictory results can be explained by the polarization of party activists, who are overrepresented within political parties. Therefore, addressing the issue of political polarization requires balancing the voices of polarized party activists with the preferences of general party supporters and voters within each party. In contrast to previous studies suggesting reforms to the presidency or electoral laws, we propose focusing on political party reforms, such as the nomination process and membership structure, to promote pluralism within the political parties.

Brief Report

[International Strategic Foresight] Mid- to Long-term Future Strategy for the Korean Peninsula: Unified Governance on the Korean Peninsula (No. 13)

P.I : Kim Tae-kyung

The mid- to long-term future of peace and shared prosperity on the Korean Peninsula fundamentally depends on the question of whether it is possible to establish a new unit for a unified Korean Peninsula that transcends the multilayered rifts and division between the two Koreas. The report defined “collective governance,” which facilitates sustainable peacebuilding on a unified Korean Peninsula, as a concept that embraces the realization of collective institutionalization, as well as the civil society as a “community of people.” The report proposed a differentiated methodology for integration that emerged from the long-term and gradual integration process of the European Union while presenting the collective governance of the Korean Peninsula as a mid- to long-term future strategy.

[National Future Strategic Insight] Improvement Directions of University Education for Enhancing Innovative Capabilities of Talented People: Learning Support and the Development of Diagnostic Indicato

P.I : Sung Moon-ju

Changes in university education are required to strengthen innovation capabilities for the sustainable development of the nation economy through innovation in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Also, policy discussions and support for effective learning support are needed to enhance the innovative capabilities of university students who are in the stage of preparing for entry into the labor market. However, there are relatively less policy discussions on changes in teaching method in specific educational settings compared to discussions on changing the content and curriculum of university education. The study aims to explore directions and strategies for enhancing the effectiveness of learning support in relation to the changing direction of university education to strengthen the innovation capabilities of talented people. Thus, it presented the “diagnostic indicator for learning support to enhance innovative capabilities of university students” developed based on learning paradigms, learning types, and learning support strategies that should be emphasized in the new environment, as well as implications and ways of utilization.

[Futures Brief] The Rise of Emerging Citizens and the Social Landscape: Future Dialogues with Citizens from Six Regions (No.9)

P.I : Park Seong-won

In this study, emerging citizens who experience deepening social problems such as climate crisis, South-North conflict, unbalanced development, residential insecurity, family dissolution, technological disparity, and environmental destruction were discovered, and we engaged in future dialogues with them. Emerging citizens pointed out several social issues, including government policies that drive citizens away if they fail to quickly achieve their dreams, policies that invest in external appearances and neglect accumulation of cultural assets, ongoing conflict between economic growth and environmental preservation and the lack of solutions, a culture that discriminates against minorities and vulnerable groups when society feels insecure, the dissolution of families and communities along with the weakening of social care, and a government that destroys the future generations and the future environment, and stressed that the government should address these problems to ensure that more citizens do not experience feelings of insecurity and discouragement.

[National Future Strategic Insight] Where Do Young People Live and Where Do They Move To? (No. 58)

P.I : Min Bo-gyeong

Recent outmigration of young people from rural areas is a major cause of population decline and economic downturn in those areas, particularly the outmigration to metropolitan areas exacerbates regional imbalance. This study seeks to find answers to where and why young people are moving and to draw political implications for improving the quality of youths’ lives and establish future strategies for the areas. Looking at the changes in interregional population migration patterns, there is an overall decrease in the scale of interregional migration. However, youth population migration is relatively active, with a tendency towards moving to the metropolitan areas. Since the main reasons for youth migration are “employment” and “housing,” this study suggests the need for regional strategies targeting the youth, including the creation of decent job opportunities and housing support policies in line with their preferences.

[National Future Strategic Insight] Implications of a Just Transition Policy through Opinions from Key Stakeholders over Coal Phase-out Conflict: Focus on Workers and Local Residents (No. 57)

P.I : Jeong Hoon

This study aimed to draw implications for a just transition policy by collecting opinions of workers and local residents, who are key stakeholders involved in the major conflict issues related to coal phase-out. The survey participants were selected on a small scale, taking into consideration their understanding of coal phase-out policy and the representativeness of their opinions as stakeholders. The survey questionnaire was designed to inquire about their awareness of the climate crisis and coal phase-out policy, the major conflict issues surrounding coal phase-out, and the direction of the just transition policy. According to the survey results, both the workers and local residents, who are the main victims of coal phase-out policy, showed a high level of awareness regarding the climate crisis and coal phase-out policy. However, opinions differed on conflict issues and the direction of the just transition policy by each stakeholder group according to their positions and situations. Based on these findings, several implications were drawn, including the need for active involvement of the National Assembly in establishing and implementing a just transition policy in relation to coal phase-out, to lay a foundation for achieving carbon neutrality favorably.

[International Strategic Foresight] Korean Diaspora and Peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula (No. 12)

P.I : Kim Tae-kyung

This report explores the existential position of the Korean diaspora between their home country and host country, as well as the practical implications of the Korean diaspora for peacebuilding in the context of the historical conflicts and enduring division on the Korean Peninsula. The report examined examples of the Korean diaspora’s role in peacebuilding on the Korean Peninsula, including the third identity of Koreans in Japan, the peace movement of Korean-American women, and the North and South Korean defector community in the UK. By looking into these cases, the report provided reflections on how to prepare for the integration of people and the structural and cultural transformation that peacebuilding implies in the mid- to long-term.

[National Future Strategic Insight] Future Policies and Resilient Innovation Strategies in the Post-COVID-19 Era (No. 56)

P.I : Yeo Yeong-jun

In this study, in order to propose mid- to long-term policy tasks for strengthening resilience in the post-COVID-19 era, key patterns of social change unfolding globally after COVID-19 were examined and scenario-based policy tasks were proposed. The study examines the main considerations for future-oriented innovation policies to strengthen the resilience of the national innovation system in response to the extensive impacts brought about by COVID-19. It also identifies the key drivers characterizing the environmental changes in the COVID-19 era and explores various possibilities for environmental changes in the COVDI-19 era based on the their interactions. Additionally, based on the key approaches and analysis results, the study proposes the “3A (Anticipation, Alliancing, and Adaptation)” strategy for transitioning to a resilient innovative system.

[National Future Strategic Insight] Japan’s Age-limit Retirement Policy: A Comparative Perspective with Korea (No. 55)

P.I : Jung Hae-yoon

This report examines the characteristics and effects of the implementation process of the Japanese age-limit system to reflect on the Korean system. While the legal and institutional aspects may appear similar between the two countries, the processes of policy formation, adjustment, and decision-making differ, leading to variations in outcomes. In Japan, laws and policies serve as inherent and ultimate functions for coordinating social actions, whereas in Korea, they are perceived as external and constraining yet do not function as regulations for actors. The age-limit system is a challenge that our society needs to address, but limiting the discussion to specific legal frameworks can narrow the scope of the issue. The report highlights the need for more comprehensive policy discussions as various possibilities may be excluded and the outcomes may differ from expectations.