International Semina “The Future of the International Order and the Global Economy After the U.S. Presidential Election”
National Assembly Futures Institute, Princeton University, National Assembly Global Diplomacy and Security Forum, and Advanced Diplomacy Forum Host International Seminar on “The Future of the International Order and the Global Economy After the U.S. Presidential Election” On Tuesday, October 15, the National Assembly Futures Institute, in collaboration with Princeton University’s Niehaus Center, the National Assembly Global Diplomacy and Security Forum (chaired by Yoon Jae Ok), and the Bipartisan Forum for Advanced Diplomacy (chaired by Wi Sung Rak), hosted an international seminar titled “The Future of the International Order and the Global Economy After the U.S. Presidential Election” in the 2nd Seminar Room of the National Assembly Members’ Office Building. This seminar, organized by Princeton University’s Niehaus Center, invited 22 prominent American political scientists and international political economists visiting Korea to discuss the anticipated results of the U.S. presidential election and its potential impact on the international order and the global economy. The event provided a platform for dialogue between the American scholars and Korean members of the National Assembly, academics, and experts. Cha Jungmi, Director of the International Strategy Research Center at the National Assembly Futures Institute, remarked, “With only 20 days left until the U.S. presidential election, the race is becoming increasingly unpredictable. In this heightened state of uncertainty, we have invited American political scientists well-versed in elections and the international political economy to forecast the election results and engage in a multifaceted discussion on their economic, political, and diplomatic-security implications. This event serves as a platform to prepare for the next global order.” In his welcoming remarks, Member of the National Assembly Yoon Jae Ok stated, “The crisis of the liberal international order faces complex challenges in various aspects, including politics, economy, environment, technology, leadership, and community,” and emphasized the importance of communication and cooperation. The first session focused on forecasting the results of the U.S. presidential election and congressional elections for the Senate and House of Representatives, as well as discussing the implications for U.S. politics, foreign policy direction, and the international order after the election. Moderated by Professor Jeon Jae Sung of Seoul National University, the session featured presentations by Professor Frances Lee of Princeton University and Professor Seo Jung Kun of Kyung Hee University. A panel discussion followed, with participation from Member of the National Assembly Choi Hyung Doo, Professor Nolan McCarty and Professor Yoo Hye Young of Princeton University, and Park Hyeonseok, Head of the Governance Group at the National Assembly Futures Institute. Professor Frances Lee, in her presentation, stated, “There has not been a time since 2000 when presidential, Senate, and House elections have been so fiercely contested simultaneously,” predicting that the outcomes would be decided by extremely narrow margins. She analyzed that such close election results could lead to various risks, including the potential for legal disputes, continued partisan gridlock and weakened bipartisan cooperation—what she described as the “Era of Insecure Majorities”—as well as the emergence of a “politically vulnerable president” with a narrow geographic support base. Professor Seo Jung Kun predicted that if Trump is re-elected, U.S. foreign policy is likely to center around unilateralism and non-interventionism. He analyzed the legislative impacts of policies such as the IRA and emphasized that considering the future of U.S. politics and the South Korean economy, the U.S. Congress could play a critical role in shaping the international order and U.S.-Korea relations. The second session focused on forecasting the impacts on the trade order. Moderated by Yoo Myung Hee, former Minister for Trade, the session featured presentations by Professor Leo Baccini of McGill University and Professor Lee Seung Joo of Chung-Ang University. A panel discussion followed with Helen Milner, Director of the Niehaus Center at Princeton University; Professor Stephanie Rickard of the London School of Economics; Jung Ki Chang, Head of the International Trade Team at Lee & Ko; and Cho Sung Dae, Head of the Trade Research Division at the Korea International Trade Association. Professor Leo Baccini, in his presentation, noted that “Economic uncertainty has deepened due to the slowdown in trade cooperation over the past 20 years, stagnation in trade liberalization over the past decade, the recent rise in protectionism, and the emergence of populism.” He stated that “A second Trump administration would pose challenges to global trade governance, such as implementing universal tariffs of at least 10%.” He also projected that “While Harris’s trade policy remains unclear, it is likely to follow the trajectory of the Biden administration, refraining from signing new free trade agreements, imposing security-related trade regulations on China, promoting industrial subsidies aimed at protecting labor rights and environmental standards, and introducing import measures to safeguard industries such as steel and green energy.” Professor Lee Seung Joo remarked in his presentation that “The world is now in an era of “slowbalization,” characterized by the slow pace of globalization.” He emphasized that “The outcome of the U.S. presidential election will determine whether we face Trade War 2.0 or the continuation of de-risking strategies.” The third session focused on forecasting changes in economic security and de-risking strategies. Moderated by Kim Hyun Wook, President of the Sejong Institute, the session featured presentations by Professor Kenneth Scheve of Yale University and Professor Park Jong Hee of Seoul National University. The panel discussion consisted of Professor Dustin Tingley of Harvard University, Professor Edward Mansfield of the University of Pennsylvania, Professor Bae Young Ja of Konkuk University, and Cha Jungmi, Director of the International Strategy Research Center at the National Assembly Futures Institute. Professor Kenneth Scheve, in his presentation, stated that “A second Trump administration would likely focus on promoting reshoring through tariffs and investment restrictions, offering tax benefits to specific sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and defense, and prioritizing oil, gas, and coal production over the IRA and green technology policies.” He added that “A Harris administration would emphasize strengthening supply chain resilience in areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, pharmaceuticals, and green technologies. It would also aim to reduce reliance on China, diversify trade by enhancing cooperation with allies, and expand the national role in supporting the domestic economy.” He also raised the question, “Are the differences between the policies of the Harris and Trump administrations being exaggerated?” He pointed out that the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 highlighted that reshoring alone is costly, suggesting that deeper partnerships with allies, including South Korea, would be necessary to establish diversified supply chains, outlining a similar strategic approach. Professor Park Jong Hee of Seoul National University emphasized that “An inward-looking approach to economic security by the United States and its allies is insufficient to address China’s global challenges and achieve domestic goals.” He stressed the importance of “revitalizing the rules-based multilateral trade system as a critical factor for economic growth and international stability” and highlighted the need to reinvigorate the WTO. He also proposed tasks such as engaging the Global South leveraging AI. This international seminar was livestreamed on the National Assembly Futures Institute’s YouTube channel, and presentation materials are available in the announcements section of the Institute’s website.
2024.10.14
