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Brief Reports

Report that suggests the national future strategies based on the analysis of major future issues by the research team
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82

[National Future Strategic Insight] Understanding and Utilizing the Emerging Issue Search Platform (No. 53)

Picking up signs and coming up with measures have become increasingly challenging as emerging issues are not easy to predict, although they have the potential to shift existing paradigms and trends. As the existing insight-based methods that heavily rely on experts are showing their limitations, a method that utilizes mass data (research papers) to quickly find patterns that meet the definition of emerging issues with algorithms has been proposed. The National Assembly Futures Institute has developed a methodology for searching for emerging issues using “novelty”, “growth”, and “impact” as indicators through related research since 2020. Also, the institute has implemented this methodology in the form of an online platform, allowing researchers analyzing emerging issues to freely utilize and access the developed algorithms, thereby enhancing its usability. In particular, this report introduces the functions and ways to utilize the finalized online platform, aiming to contribute to the promotion of research on emerging issues and expansion of related social discussions.

P.I : Kim You-been

Date : 2022-09-19

[National Future Strategic Insight] Changes in Future Demographics and Old-age Income Security (No. 52)

This report presents the demographic changes that Korean society has experienced in recent years and the resulting phenomena of population aging and changes in population structure. It also examines how the old-age income security system has emerged and expanded during the process of modernization and the potential impact of future demographic changes on the system. The researchers identified three policy tasks for the future operation of the old-age income security system: (1) Establishing an adequate level of old-age income security to ensure long-term financial stability while effectively alleviating poverty in later life, (2) Considering the introduction of automatic adjustment mechanisms to cope more flexibly with future demographic changes, and (3) the need for additional measures such as extending the working life and investing in human resources for women and older workers.

P.I : Yoo Hee-soo

Date : 2022-09-05

[National Future Strategic Insight] The Main Conflict Issues and Stakeholder Analysis of the Coal Phase-out Process in Korea (No. 51)

The phase-out of coal is the most fundamental and crucial prerequisite for the transition to a carbon-neutral society, and major countries, including Korea, are pursuing coal phase-out policies. Coal power generation has been a key energy source driving global industrial and economic development, and the transition away from coal is expected to result in various conflicts and costs for related industries, workers, and local communities. Korea has set a target of coal phase-out by 2050. Before fully implementing this policy, it is necessary to identify potential social conflicts that may arise during the transition process and develop policy measures to resolve them. In this study, expert focus group interviews were conducted to identify possible conflict issues during the coal phase-out process considering the domestic situation, and the key points of these conflict issues and the involved stakeholders were analyzed. As a result, the study drew implications including establishing social dialogue governance such as a coal phase-out committee, enacting legal grounds for coal phase-out, and developing compensation measures for power generators in order to minimize social conflicts and costs arising from the coal phase-out process and promote stable coal phase-out policies.

P.I : Jeong Hoon

Date : 2022-08-22

[International Strategic Foresight] U.S.-China Strategic Competition and the Rise of Science and Technology Diplomacy Chains (No. 11)

This study focuses on the strategic competition between the U.S. and China the intensifying science and technology diplomacy competition, and analyzed the specific aspects of science and technology diplomacy competition pursued by both countries in order to secure the technological and diplomatic advantage. In particular, the study analyzed the science and technology diplomacy competition between the U.S. and China from the perspectives of “diplomacy for science,” which leverages diplomacy to secure an advantage in key emerging technology competition, and “science and technology for diplomacy,” which utilizes the elements of science and technology to expand national influence and strengthen solidarity within a bloc. The study highlighted that Korea’s science and technology diplomacy should be established as an integrated strategy that links national interests with global aspirations and needs, and aligns the science and technology environment with diplomatic goals.

P.I : Cha Jung-mi

Date : 2022-08-16

[National Future Strategic Insight] Koreans’ Perceptions of Allocation: Implications for the “Meritocracy” Debate (No. 50)

This report examines the meaning of “meritocracy” by analyzing the perception of “resource allocation criteria” among Koreans based on the Koreans’ Happiness Survey, 2021. Pointing out that the ambiguous performance-oriented system, also referred as “ideally effort-based, but practically performance-based” system, may be what Koreans think of as meritocracy today, the report highlights the need to thoroughly examine the bright and dark sides of “meritocracy” as a criterion for resource allocation.

P.I : Lee Sang-jic

Date : 2022-08-08

[National Future Strategic Insight] Alternative Strategies for the Korean Welfare System (No. 49)

Based on the perspective of welfare capitalism, this study proposes a new alternative welfare system that responds to the uniqueness of the Korean socio-economic system. The Korean welfare system is characterized by “regressive selectivity,” in which welfare benefits intended to respond to social risks such as unemployment, illness, and old age are concentrated among those with relatively stable employment and income. In the face of a slowdown in Korea’s potential growth rate and jobless growth, this welfare system is expected to be unsustainable. Three alternative strategies to overcome the contradictions in the current system were proposed: reorganizing the national employment insurance into an income-based social insurance, expanding the minimum income guarantee for those excluded from social insurance coverage, and establishing an industrial structure and increasing human capital to provide universal social services.

P.I : Lee Sun-hwa

Date : 2022-07-25

[Futures Brief] Window of Opportunity to Identify Emerging Issues: Top 10 Emerging Issues Related to Conflict and Their Implications (No.7)

Emerging issues were not clearly evident and rarely garnered policymakers’ attention until they started to shift into trends and exerted significant influence on society. This study developed a method to identify issues that are likely to become trends in the future, and to prevent researcher bias in issue identification, by using an automated algorithm to filter through a large amount of literature, identified emerging keywords, and formed them into emerging issues. Using our internally developed emerging issue detection algorithm based on the WoS (Web of Science) database over the past five years and focusing on “conflict” cases, we derived the top 30 keywords that meet the criteria of novelty, scalability, and impact.

P.I : Park Seong-won, Kim You-been

Date : 2022-07-18

[National Future Strategic Insight] Analysis of Happiness in Single-person Households (No. 48)

This study examines the current status of the rapidly increasing number of single-person households using data from the Koreans’ Happiness Survey, 2021 and draws policy implications for future society by analyzing their happiness. The analysis revealed that both single-person households and multi-person households tended to have significantly higher levels of happiness, when they have higher levels of satisfaction with living standards, satisfaction with health, satisfaction with future security, satisfaction with work, and trust in others. Examining the factors influencing happiness among three groups: young single-person households under 30, middle-aged single-person households between 40 to 50, and elderly single-person households above 60, distinct features were observed by age group. By establishing the role of local communities and the government as complementary to the existing family system, this study suggests the need for tailored strategies that reflect the characteristics of diverse single-person households, which vary by region, age, and income, allowing the local communities and the government to take on many functions previously performed by families.

P.I : Min Bo-gyeong

Date : 2022-07-11

[International Strategic Foresight] U.S.-China Technological Rivalry and Restructuring of Global Supply Chains (No. 10)

This report analyzes the U.S.-China competition for technological hegemony and the resulting restructuring of global supply chains, and derives implications for South Korea from the analysis. More specifically, it analyzes the vulnerabilities and restructuring landscape of global supply chains due to changes in the competitiveness of the U.S. and China in high-tech, major U.S. legislative cases related to high-tech, and geopolitical factors. Based on these findings, the report suggests that we should inspect the stability of our supply chain, actively participate in the restructuring of the global supply chain and the international economic order, and secure a position in the global supply chain by strengthening technological competitiveness The report also highlights the need for institutional measures to protect advanced technologies.

P.I : Park Sung-jun

Date : 2022-07-04

[International Strategic Foresight] "Green Détente": Exploring the Future of Peacebuilding through Environmental Cooperation (No. 9)

This report was initiated to study the issue of the need to fully examine the various possibilities of how to link the issues of environment and peace in order to transform the “Green Détente,” proposed as a commitment for peace on the Korean Peninsula by the Yoon administration, into a feasible policy for the future. By examining the theoretical discussions in peacebuilding related to the nature of “Green Détente,” the report looked into what efforts should logically precede the realization of “Green Détente” as a viable policy vision. The report also explored the theoretical concepts involved in the transition to “Green,” representing environmental cooperation, to “Détente,” which signifies a structural transformation of Cold War-like conflicts towards peacebuilding, and the necessary preconditions, stages, and mechanisms for achieving peacebuilding through environmental cooperation.

P.I : Kim Tae-kyung

Date : 2022-06-20