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Brief Reports

Report that suggests the national future strategies based on the analysis of major future issues by the research team
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82

[National Future Strategic Insight]The Future of the Republic of Korea and Education:10 Education Agendas (No. 39)

This report examines the past, present, and future of education in Korea and suggests 10 education agendas for a better future: (1) Transition of educational paradigm, (2) Establishment of an educational vision, (3) Enactment of the National Charter of Education and Learning, (4) Creation of a national education learning fund, (5) Comprehensive expansion of creative education, (6) Decentralization of educational authority and responsibility with enhanced autonomy, (7) Individualized education, (8) Lifelong education system, (9) Health and sports education, and (10) Education for socially disadvantaged individuals. It highlights that education is the greatest driving force behind the development of resource-scarce Korea and will continue to be the most important engine that determines Korea’s future growth and development and the future of individuals.

P.I : Kim Hyeon-kon

Date : 2022-02-21

[International Strategic Foresight] Global Perception es of the U.S.-China Competition for Technological Hegemony, Im plications for South Korean Diplomacy, and the Role of the Assembly (No. 7)

The escalation of the U.S.-China battle for technological hegemony is not only affecting the two countries, but also countries around the world. Countries around the world are closely observing the impact and contemplating their own strategic directions and responses. Analyzing the mid- to long-term effects of the U.S.-China fight for technological hegemony and considering strategies is not only a challenge for Korea, but shared by countries globally. Starting from these concerns, this study analyzed global perceptions and strategies in the era of the U.S.-China competition for technological hegemony and provided suggestions for the direction of Korea’s diplomatic strategies and the role of the assembly. The study highlighted that as a “global innovation leader,” Korea should take the lead in core technologies and drive global cooperation, while the assembly should support this by enacting legislation and allocating budgets based on open technology sovereignty.

P.I : Cha Jung-mi

Date : 2022-02-14

[National Future Strategic Insight] Findings of Korean’s Happiness Survey, 2021 (No. 38)

According to Koreans’ Happiness Survey, 2021, the average overall happiness score of all Koreans was 6.56 (response range: 0-10), a slight but statistically significant decrease from 6.83 in 2020. The decrease in overall happiness can be attributed to the negative effects of the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic (decreased income, reduced social relationships, etc.). In particular, vulnerable groups with low levels of happiness, such as the elderly, low-educated people, those with low economic status, precarious workers, single-person households, those living in unstable housing conditions, basic livelihood recipients, and multicultural families, experienced larger declines in happiness levels compared to the previous year, demonstrating a widening of happiness inequality. This indicates the need for in-depth research on ways to increase the happiness levels of vulnerable groups in the future, and to seek political and legislative solutions based on the research.

P.I : Heo Jong-ho

Date : 2022-02-07

[National Future Strategic Insight] 20 Years of the Post Disability Movement and 20 Years Since Disability Rights Legislation: From “Right to Move” to “Deinstitutionalization” (No. 37)

This report examines the societal changes in South Korea over the past 40 years or 20 years from the perspective of the disability rights movement, and urges the collective effort to shape the future of Korean society in the next 20 years. Noting that the impact of the disability rights movement has materialized in the form of disability rights legislation, the report describes their relationship in major phases. The report highlights that the Disabilities Rights Act and the Amendment Bill on Welfare of the Disabled proposed by the 21st National Assembly mark a new phase in the 20- to 40-year history of disability rights legislation, and predicts that the next 20 years of Korean society will be determined by how these bills are passed and implemented.

P.I : Lee Sang-jic

Date : 2022-01-21

[Futures Brief] Assessment of Future Impact of Science and Technology: European Parliament 2021 Report “Our Response to Unprecedented Issues” (No. 5)

Dr. Park Seong-won (Research Fellow) has confirmed that the economic and social impact was concentrated on the socially disadvantaged and vulnerable groups such as women, youth, and low-skilled workers during the two years after the COVID-19 crisis worldwide. The brief is based on a report containing a parliamentary evaluation for science and technology to respond to COVID-19 by the European Parliament Technology Assessment Network (EPTA). NAFI participates in the EPTA as an associate member. For rapidly addressing social and economic impacts of COVID-19 on the vulnerable groups, parliaments of each country have urged scientific and technological efforts such as provision of COVID-19 response information using advanced IT and the development of vaccines and therapeutics, and also jointly made efforts to respond to the crisis by establishing committees and social channels in which the government, experts, and citizens participate together. In 2021 report, EPTA evaluated that they were impressed by Korea’s efforts to track confirmed cases using advanced IT, to share data such as medical resources, and to gather experts and citizens for discussion on future prospects and countermeasures via the National Assembly.

P.I : Park Seong-won

Date : 2022-01-17

[National Future Strategic Insight] “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” (No. 36)

This report points out that Korea has displayed unprecedented rapid economic growth, but on the other hand, individuals and societies suffer from inequality, polarization, antagonism and confrontation, thereby envisioning “Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society”, emphasizing the need for transition to a society where individuals and communities are not sacrificed for the national development goal but design the future together as equal subjects, and value quality rather than quantitative expansion. The researchers present “autonomy and decentralization”, “diversity”, “priority to the socially vulnerable” as values we have to direct towards, with 12 specific mid- to long-term agendas under four goals “individual capacity and quality of life”, “harmonized community”, “paradigm shift and sustainable growth” and “mediation and cooperation against domestic/international conflicts”. The report is intended to focus on mid- to long-term agendas that three governments should continue to push forward, considering that a new government will be launched in 2022. By analyzing the issues of consensus, potential conflict, and fierce confrontation by each agenda from various perspectives, the report presents a topic for expanding social conversation in the future. This report has been prepared to display the key points of “Future Vision 2037: Transition from Growth-Oriented to Matured Society” of the National Mid-to-Long-Term Agenda Committee (“Committee”), which is an advisory body under the Speaker of the National Assembly established at the end of November 2020 to discover national tasks and future issues required to be continuously discussed beyond the five-year term of the administration. Future Vision 2037 Report is the outcome of Committee-supported research conducted over the past year by forming a joint research team led by NAFI, other government-funded research institutes under the jurisdiction of the National Research Council for Economics, Humanities and Social Sciences (NRC) and the National Research Council of Science & Technology (NST), and 60 experts from major universities. “As this report contains national agendas requiring continuous discussion beyond the five-year term of the administration, we plan to use various tools to promote the research results so that the politicians and the public can continue to take interest,” explains Research Fellow Kim Yu-bean of NAFI.

P.I : Kim Yu-bean

Date : 2022-01-10

[National Future Strategic Insight] Policies to Support Industries Affected by Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and Policy Effect Analysis (No. 35)

Performing a survey for 25 experts by Jeong Hoon (Research Fellow) and Yeo Yeong-jun (Associate Research Fellow), respondents answered that “pro forma opinion gathering” and “hasty and exclusive legislative process” are the biggest obstacles of domestic climate policy and legislation. They confirmed that by enhancing policies and legislation, the regulatory restructuring, promotion of domestic industry conversion and export industry support should be integrated. Further, the CBAM-oriented supports should encompass support, protection, promotion and conversion as strategic directions, including tax benefits, funding support, R&D support, distribution/commercialization, infrastructure, customized support for each industry, reasonable transaction framework, innovative system, policy governance, education and publicity. The priority of the proposed industrial support policy tasks was analyzed based on urgency and effectiveness with analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which was given to R&D support, tax benefits, funding support, customized support for each industry, innovative system, distribution/commercialization, infrastructure, policy governance, reasonable transaction framework, and education and publicity in this order. Additionally, the researchers proved the importance and effectiveness of the industrial support policy by analyzing the socioeconomic ripple effect using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for “R&D support” with the highest priority, and also confirmed that major macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, social utility, and investment, which had fallen due to the CBAM, recovered somewhat with R&D support, thereby resolving the growth slowdown, as well as indirect effect of promoting carbon neutrality of the power generation sector. “As it was quantitatively confirmed that the implementation of the industrial support policy had positive economic and social effects, we could confirm the need of preparing a systematic industrial support policy for carbon neutrality as well as responding to the CBAM,” explains Dr. Jeong Hoon. “In the policy design, it is necessary to come up with an integrated support plan and improve the system thereby ensuring introduction of regulations that meet the needs of the international community and customized protection and support policies taking into account the structural characteristics of the domestic industry.”

P.I : Jeong Hoon, Yeo Yeong-jun

Date : 2021-12-30

[National Future Strategic Insight] Future Strategies to Response to Population Shock: Mitigation and Adaptation (No. 34)

Dr. Min Bo-gyeong, the Head of Quality of Life Group, has classified regions based on variables reflecting population, regional economy, and spatial characteristics, and suggested, in consideration of regional characteristics, the need to properly mix the adaptation strategy premised on population decline and the mitigation strategy for population growth. Dr. Min also proposed that, as a variety of proper responses sought, it is necessary to (1) stablish a region-led future strategy that reflects regional characteristics and emphasizes the autonomy of local governments; (2) promote customized future strategies and define the role of the central government; (3) review the existing regional development methods centered on strategies to overcome population decline and demographic change, and (4) convert into a regional policy system and seek active measures to respond to demographic changes, thereby balancing population and living conditions. According to the report, a death cross occurred in 2020 with fewer births than deaths, and birth rate decline has been spreading from underdeveloped areas to small and medium-sized cities and large cities for more than 20 years, observing significant difference between regions. Dr. Min emphasized that it is inevitable to shift from the past regional development strategy on the assumption of population growth, with awareness that the crisis of population decline is a reality and it is necessary to build up effective strategies. “Concentration in the metropolitan area and population decline in rural areas should be recognized as a national crisis, not a regional crisis,” explains Dr. Min. “As population decline and demographic changes are expected to keep intensifying , it is necessary to appropriately implement local government-led mitigation sand adaptation strategies reflecting regional characteristics.”

P.I : Min Bo-gyeong

Date : 2021-12-23

[National Future Strategic Insight] Exploring Improvements in Framework for Social Services due to Low Birth Rate and Aging Society (No. 33).

Dr. Lee Chae-jeong drew a distribution map of early childhood care and education (ECCE) services, school age services, elderly long-term care (ELTC) services, and nursing hospitals within the living environment. For the ECCE and school age services, differences in competition and exclusion levels were observed between regions with a high density of children and regions otherwise. The ELTC services and nursing hospitals showed various distribution patterns by region in terms of competition and exclusion levels. The term “competition level” herein is defined as the number of available service providers versus the service target population; “exclusion level” is defined as the size of target population for which no services are available within their living environment. In particular, relatively higher completion/exclusion levels were recorded in Sejong and Jeju, while Seoul showed higher completion level and lower exclusion level in childhood care services. Both competition and exclusion levels were lower in Gangwon-do and Chungcheongbuk-do. A relatively higher exclusion level for childhood care services was observed in In Gyeongsangbuk-do and Gyeongsangnam-do. Dr. Lee, based on outcomes of her research, concluded that different approaches are needed in reorganizing a social service framework by region. She also suggested that it is necessary to expand the ELTC service framework to the extent that satisfies the demand in consideration of a super-aged society we are about to face and regional characteristics; to efficiently reduce ECCE facilities in regions where the service providers are crowded considering the declined birth rate; and to build a national network of the ECCE services to ensure the “National Minimum”.

P.I : Lee Chae-jeong

Date : 2021-12-15

[National Future Strategic Insight] College Education to Improve Entrepreneurial Mindset of Youth (No. 32)

Dr. Sung Moon-ju (Associate Research Fellow) has pointed out lack of entrepreneurial mindset in Korea, and suggested that changes and innovations are needed in college education to foster such mindset for young people who are preparing to enter the labor market or in the early stages of their careers. Entrepreneurial mindset is drawing considerable attention for successful response to changes caused by the recent growth slowdown and 4.0 Industry, which is a specific set of capabilities to proactively seize opportunities, take risks, and turn new ideas into economically and socially valuable products, services, and processes. According to the study, the entrepreneurial mindset positively influences start-up, employment, career, psychosocial status, attitude and college life of students. In addition, college education will contribute to cultivating mindset in young people with continuous efforts to foster entrepreneurship, improve awareness of entrepreneurs creating socioeconomic values, and revitalize start-ups and job creation. Especially, in order to cultivate the entrepreneurial mindset of the youth and our society, changes are necessary in terms of the role of colleges, educational paradigms, curriculum and methodology. Others required simultaneously include changes in social and cultural factors, such as social sharing of risk of failure following challenges through new education practice and social safety nets, and institutional factors such as innovation in government regulations and startup support process. “This report identified the role and promotion factors of entrepreneurship for college students with analysis of previous studies, and drew takeaways referring to the cases of Dutch universities,” explains Dr. Sung.

P.I : Sung Moon-ju

Date : 2021-12-09