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The National Assembly Futures Institute publishes reports that predict and analyze the changes in the future environment based on a comprehensive perspective, and derive mid- to long-term national development strategies in consideration of the preferences of the citizens
[20-05] Population estimation study considering direct cohort effects

Date : 2020-12-31 item : Research Report 20-05 P.I : Heo Jong-ho et al.

Population estimation is a fundamental analysis involved in future forecasts in the areas of finance, industry, pensions, and health insurance. Nevertheless, gaps in the statistics office’s future population estimates have been continuously pointed out. The most important limitation of the population estimation method is that the birth cohort effects in the estimates have been calculated based only on age and period effects.

Therefore, this study attempted a more accurate estimation of mortality, fertility, and migrations using the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis method to calculate the birth cohort effect directly.

The main results are as follows: first, the cohort effect had a statistically significant effect on mortality, fertility, and migrations. Second, the APC analysis based on this showed a very high level of predictive accuracy in the mortality rate of Korean men and women. In terms of fertility and migrations, the prediction accuracy was relatively lower.

The findings point to the necessity of considering the APC methodology in future mortality estimations.